Silicon Trends and Carbon Footprints
Silicon shipments are a key metric for understanding semiconductor industry trends because they serve as a direct indicator of production demand and capacity utilization across various segments of the market. TechInsights’ Global Semiconductor Carbon Emissions Forecast, 2025-2030 leverages silicon shipment volumes as measured in millions of square inches (MSI) by technology node and semiconductor type (3D NAND and “Other”) and applies weighted wafer emissions values in kg carbon equivalent (CO2e) for each node by type.
The figure below illustrates the year-over-year growth rates for both silicon shipments and emissions from wafer fabrication. In 2020, silicon shipments grew by 8%, while emissions rose by 11% driven by 10nm and 7nm production. Both markets continued to grow over the next two years but declined 18% in 2023.
Year-over-Year Growth Rates of Silicon Shipments (MSI) and Semiconductor Carbon Emissions (CO2e), December 2024.
In 2024, silicon shipments were forecasted to recover with a 5% annual increase. With emissions expected to grow only 2%, muted by the extended memory downturn from the first half of the year. Emissions are projected to outpace silicon shipments in 2025 as the industry scales up <4nm and >368L 3D NAND processes, then moderate in 2026. Both markets are expected to decline in 2027, with emissions decreasing at a steeper rate (7%) relative to slicon (3%) driven by a sharp decline in 4nm - 10nm/64L-192L production. Emissions are anticipated to remain flat in 2028, while silicon shipments are predicted to outpace emissions due to a 64% expansion in <4nm manufacturing capacity in North America and Europe, regions with lower electricity carbon intensity. The ramp of leading-edge capacity in South Korea and Taiwan are expected to drive a surge of emissions in 2029, along with a recovery of emissions from 10nm processes. Silicon shipment and emissions growth are forecast to converge in 2030.
Silicon shipments provide a critical lens for analyzing semiconductor industry trends, serving as a tangible indicator of production demand and capacity utilization across diverse market segments. The TechInsights Global Semiconductor Carbon+ Emissions Forecast (2025-2030) underscores the interplay between silicon shipment volumes and emissions, highlighting the complex relationship between technological advancements, fab location, and environmental impact.
