Apple iPad Model Tracker 4Q 2023: Big Changes Expected in 2024 Refresh

As economic conditions improved in the second half of 2023, so too did tablet demand. However, with a product portfolio not updated since late 2022, low refresh demand for iPad held back a stronger recovery. Apple shipped only 52 million iPad units globally in 2023, representing an 18% year-over-year decline and falling to 38% market share as their lack of new product has hurt demand from their user base. In the meantime, Android OEMs took market share and improved their tablet offerings. With rumors of new iPad launches in late March 2024, Apple aims to capitalize on the next refresh cycle. In this report, we examine what challenges Apple, its competitors, and the supply chain will face in this new environment.

As the customer base shifted more toward the consumer side for holiday shopping, our model share tracking show that iPad shipments also shifted toward lower tier models. Apple spent all of 2023 focused on the Vision Pro, which diverted attention from some of its traditional products like the iPad. Apple’s competitors did not rest on their laurels.

Samsung, Lenovo, Xiaomi, and other vendors with a more premium product mix gained share in the vacuum left by Apple. While this shift in competitive dynamics has not yet resulted in growth for the overall tablet market, all three of these vendors achieved positive year-over-year growth in 4Q 2023.

Apple is rumored to launch new iPad Pro models with the M3 chip and even new iPad Air models in late March 2024, kicking off a year of iPad updates. These will be important updates to Apple’s portfolio and should be cast in the new light of what is possible with on-device AI to reinforce the messaging that iPads are PC replacements as well as entertainment devices. Likewise, competitors that have gained ground over the last year must push their recently enhanced advantage of brand awareness in the productivity user segment and keep pace with technological upgrades as well as fresh marketing. So far, Samsung has been the most forceful in marketing its AI capabilities in smartphones and PCs, but tablets will be equally important to the next computing refresh.