The Chip Insider®–One-China: Unification with Taiwan 2027

One-China: Unification with Taiwan ̶̶̶̶ ̶̶̶̶ 2027: Does China attack Taiwan? Why, when, how, and if.

China’s unification with Taiwan has become the hot conversation topic this year… 2027 is just around the corner, which ̶ has been predicted by many as the most likely year this conflict will start. I have also personally predicted this as the year. Why 2027? In 2021 President Xi Jinping set this year as a deadline for the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to be “ready… So, all of this puts a peak of urgency for a go/no-go decision in 2027 or 2028 at the latest. Earlier predictions of 2027 being a critical year also centered on the “China Peaking” concept, outlined by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley … many China watchers … believe China’s nominal GDP growth was flat in 2022, possibly even with a negative sign. Why nominal and not real? China has had a deflation problem like Japan in the 90s... Take out deflation and its economy has only been growing at around 2% nominally… This puts more pressure … because … China’s economy will not pass the US in the foreseeable future without a major shift in world order.

There is added pressure: the US and its allies are rearming. The disparity of access to TSMC’s advanced semiconductor activity and opportunity to deny US access to it diminishes daily, as the company’s Arizona operations become more capable. Plans are … Quantum Advantage is another time-limited pressure point in China’s conflict decision matrix. China and the US are in a race to Quantum computing, communications, and sensing. China’s tactical battle advantage will be eliminated if the US gains credible … capability. China’s tactical advantage relies on … Whoever gets it first has strategic advantage…

Why not 2027? Over the last two years, I’ve come to question this year as the PLA may be far from ready, given Xi’s military purges…

Why not at all? In addition to the PLA’s readiness, I see a potential collapse in China’s economy and famine level starvation as the primary reasons why Xi won’t go to war over Taiwan...

Xi’s Conflict Decision Matrix: China’s leaders have always asked a lot of its citizens… With a military conflict, his legacy may turn out to be similar to Mao’s. With a peaceful resolution, he may well come to be seen as equal to or even greater than Deng Xiaoping.

“Intelligence is quickness in seeing things as they are”
— George Santayana