The Chip Insider®– Trump’s Triumph: redux
Author: G. Dan Hutcheson
Discover how Trump’s 2024 election victory could reshape business and the semiconductor industry. Dive into G. Dan Hutcheson’s analysis of CHIPS Acts, tariffs, and export controls.
No matter what one thinks of it, we all have businesses to run and must deal with it. It’s real now, he has won the election. The biggest surprise … was Republicans winning majorities in both the House and Senate. In theory, this gives Trump and Republicans pretty much the power to do anything. In practice, not so much… Trump does have the advantage of being the most persuasive human on the planet in this century … so far. Now he must shift those persuasive powers from voters to Congress, which won’t be as easy this time because the Republican party is much more factious.
Last time, Trump had Mitch McConnell to bring everyone in line … this time there are plenty of mavericks who are deficit hawks, defense hawks, China hawks, or some combination of the above … Somehow Trump must calm the chaos, since two big challenges could overtake his presidency: Negotiating the 2025 debt limit and deciding what to do about Ukraine …
Lower Corporate Taxes … Deficit hawks have real concerns. It’s also why Trump wants more control over the Fed. However, lowering interest rates to near-zero would reignite inflation. Add tariff fuel to the fire and it could be really bad.
CHIPS Acts 1 & 2: Being a high point on Biden’s legacy list makes it a lightning rod for the Trump-good/Biden-bad political ratio…
Tariffs: I expect President-elect Trump’s affinity for tariffs to have a dramatic effect on the worldwide semiconductor industry. Their tax revenue will make deficit hawks happy, while he doesn’t need an act of Congress to enact them…
Export Controls: Expect more…
China: When it comes to China, I still believe this summer’s assessment holds: Trump, given the demeanor of the China hawks, will shift from Biden’s policy of attempting to control them to one of a full decoupling…
A final word of wisdom from Jim Morgan at the celebration of ITPC’s 40th anniversary last week. He was talking about his battles to take Applied Materials global and the surprise that they became the first company to get Japanese funding to build an R&D center. He said, “Unexpected surprises were always there from governments and other organizations. What you must do is stay focused on where you’re going and then just deal with the surprises when they come.”
“History never repeats itself but it often rhymes.” — as Mark Twain is reputed to have said
